Rising Demand, Tight Supply, and Industry Challenges Ahead

As the global timber market enters 2025, all signs point toward a period of tightening supply and rising prices. A confluence of factors—including renewed housing activity in the United States, supply disruptions in Europe, and ongoing cost pressures—is reshaping how timber is sourced and traded across the world. For importers in Asia, the Middle East, and other high-demand markets, this shift signals a need for strategic planning and early procurement.

U.S. Housing Market Recovery Fuels Global Timber Demand

One of the primary drivers of the expected price increase is the projected rebound in the U.S. housing sector. In 2025, housing starts are forecasted to rise by 4%, with an additional 1% uptick in remodeling activity. Most nations are also expected to cut interest rates in the coming year due to tariffs. Lower borrowing costs will likely stimulate more homebuilding, putting upward pressure on timber demand—and, by extension, prices. Moreover, Canadian timber will be hit with huge tariffs triggering curtailment which will allow the Europeans to access a larger piece of the US market share.

European Timber: High Global Demand Meets Local Constraints

European timber has long served as a key supply source for both the U.S. and importers across the Middle East and Asia. However, as American demand increases, more European softwood is being redirected to the U.S., reducing availability for other global markets. At the same time, log availability within Europe is becoming a critical challenge. Sawmills are struggling with higher costs and raw material shortages, forcing many to scale back production.

What This Means for Importers in the Middle East and Asia

For timber buyers in the GCC, India, Southeast Asia, and beyond, the landscape in 2025 will be more competitive and less predictable. With limited European supply and rising global demand, importers should anticipate:

• Higher prices and longer lead times

• Fewer shipping allocations from Europe

• Greater urgency to lock in contracts early